By William B. Conerly Ph.D.
Businomics connects the dots among the economic system and daily company judgements including:
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Today, however, few economists monitor money supply. First, we no longer need indirect measures of the Fed’s intentions. The Federal Reserve Board has decided to announce its policies in clear terms. Second, money supply has become a very difficult tool for gauging Fed policy. Sweep accounts (in which a company’s bank deposits are swept into an investment account every night) have distorted the money supply statistics so that they are not as reliable as they used to be. And plenty of economists had, in the past, observed that money supply was not perfectly reliable.
Japan eventually proved this point, implementing a policy they called “quantitative easing,” meaning that they continued to increase their money supply even after interest rates were nearly zero. The savvy business manager should watch monetary policy by noticing Fed policy announcements in the news, keeping an eye on the Fed Funds rate, and monitoring the yield curve. In severe recessions, the manager must watch the money supply more than interest rates. Time Lags Now for the hard part: time lags.
As a general rule, longer time lags are involved with more expensive and more complex goods. At the extreme end, aircraft production lags well behind the economy, by as much as two years. I made a very bad economic assessment at the end of 1991. The economy had entered recession in mid-1990, then begun its recovery in the spring of 1991. By December 1991, the economy was growing decently, with more growth likely in 1992. In a speech in Seattle, I said that the Washington economy had dodged a bullet because a recession had come and gone without a drop in Boeing’s aircraft employment.